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inSUBordination - Wag the Dog

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Sunday, January 09, 2005

He who thinks the trade surplus is the only indicator for economic success doesn't understand anything!

There is no doubt, that the trade deficit alone is no indicator for economic success. But who beliefs this would be the only question of concern about the current account deficit has not understood the problem. The trade deficit is not the same as the current account deficit.

I will refer to the post "The economic monster is bogus" from Adam Smith institute Blog:
Today's Wall Street Journal Europe attacks those who complain that the US needs to export more and import less. These people believe that "the economy is being put in jeopardy by some monster called the current account deficit".

Much of the same thinking abounds in the UK, too. The Chancellor of the Exchequer gets attacked for an 'imbalance' in our economy due to a 'trade deficit'. A 'trade deficit' sounds like a bad thing. But as the Journal points out, the only country which exports more current account goods than the US is Germany, and it is not doing too well. Despite a 'trade surplus', Germany's growth was only 1.2% following three years of near-total stagnation. It also has double the unemployment rate of the US.

In other words, having a 'trade surplus' is no indication of economic success.


You can't compare Germany and USA that easily. Without the "trade surplus" German economic growth would be much worse. In other words, the trade surplus is in Germany the single most important factor fueling the economic growth not only in Germany but also in the USA as 70% of trade surplus of Germany is absorbed by the current account deficit of the USA. If Germanys economy is struggling, who will finance the devastating current account deficit of the US in the future?
The high unemployment rate is still a result of the reunification. The good economy of western Germany can't compensate that easily for the crappy economy of the former GDR. Moreover, labor is in Germany too expensive, compared to the world which results in German companies migrating their production to foreign countries, where they can produce cheaper and more competitive. This effect was particularly augmentet through the EU-extention rendering the cheap labor of eastern europe accesible to european companys. In addition high unemployment rate is a result of the well established social system of Germany propagating the immigration of people with poor education who just intend to live on social benefits. The social benefits moreover compete with employment, since education of many unemployed is that bad, that they would never be able to find a job where the get as much money as they get from the social welfare office. As a result they don't want to work. Unemployed people get a hell lot of money for doing nothing, that's what it all comes down to. Germany can only finance their social security system with their trade surplus. The USA would never allow this kind of abuse of their social systems.
Moreover, Germany finances large parts of the EU with their trade surplus. Without the funds Germany was paying to the EU economic growth would be much better.
The reason for the US economy to be stable despite their current account deficit is that the dollar is the worlds reserve currency which results in an increased monetary inflow in the US-market though fundamental economic data of the USA does not support this behavior. That is the reason why it works for the US but not for any other country in the world,especially not for Germany, IMHO.
The growing economy in the US is partly due to the weak dollar which is also a result of the current account deficit. Yet, with a dollar to low and to unstable as a result of the current account deficit and political interests, the dollar might loose its relevance as a reserve currency which would cause the USA to change their policy fundamental.
As a result of the current account deficit, the US will have to increase the interest rates to keep the money inflow up despite the devastating current account deficit. Increasing interest rates usually mean decreasing economic growth. Thus, figures might look different next year.
Moreover, the value of the dollar will rise again, as the interest rates are increasing. This will put the US export under pressure and will further increase the current account deficit.
I think that a certain current account deficit will always be tolerated by the world-markets. But if it's going too high the system will become instable in the long run and it would be impossible to rebalance this instability by a short intervention. In the long run the current account deficit will not be compensated by the decline of the dollar, but the current account deficit will decrease the importance of the American currency as the world reserve currency.

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